Using trend, momentum and fundamentals to build high conviction portfolios
We identify stocks that are appreciating in value and avoid those that are depreciating in value. We believe that stocks in motion tend to stay in motion until new information causes expectations to change.
Trends can last longer than expected because new information is frequently trend reinforcing. Fundamentals take time to change. While investor expectations are being constantly re-calibrated and updated causing prices to drift, especially in those situation with high uncertainty and a diversity of opinion.
We identify stocks that have been out-performing peers over the medium term and avoid those that have been under-performing.
We are looking to position our portfolios in alignment with the market by being invested in the strongest performing stocks. The strongest performing stocks are those that are most likely to be undergoing positive expectation revisions and as a result, generating strong out-performance.
We compare each stock in our investable universe by valuation, earnings growth, financial strength and earnings quality. We quantify each of these critical metrics by combining several complimentary fundamental data points into an overall score, which we use to rank each stock.
We use these rankings to understand each company’s relative return prospects. We avoid those companies with the most mediocre earnings quality, deteriorating financial strength or weak earnings growth. We also avoid the highest priced companies in the market.
Ultimately we seek to create a high conviction portfolio of stocks that are in clear uptrends, showing strong momentum, while at the same time avoiding those with the weakest fundamental characteristics.
Thereby we seek to invest only in those stocks that we believe have the most opportunity for systematic error and therefore the highest probability of outperforming in the future.
Our priority is on the disciplined execution of our strategy. Process consistency is at the heart of what we do and is paramount to long term investment success.